Investment or not

[guru1313]

Har vi ikke set denne form for debat før, postulater der er skråsikre og betragtninger der godt kan flyttes på.  

Jeg er ikke meget inde i PP og Lange, men jeg vil, uden at blinke, bruge mine sparepenge ud fra især Gerts men også Mads betragtninger. De handler ikke kun om ure, eller rettere ét bestemt mærke, som ifølge Willy vil være det eneste saliggørende i fremtiden, Citat "But Lange are or will be in the buyers eyes the ultimate" men om økonomi, som er det verdensorden drejer rundt om.

Jeg forestiller mig, at rigtige møg rige og passionerede samlere er ligeglade med gensalgsværdien, de vil bare have DET ur!
Så er der de samlere der, økonomisk ikke har uanede midler. De er nød til at skæve til gensalgsværdien, for at opretholde det økonomiske aspekt i samlingen.
Og så er der dem der bruger ure som investering, de må tage store chancer og håbe på, at de har købt rigtigt ind. Ikke kun i forhold til mærker, men også i forhold til modeller, årgange, små serier, modeller der pludselig udgår, skrifttyper på skiven, fejl på skiven der slipper igennem kontrollen etc.etc..... men hvem kan gætte det?

Allan

---

[TioMalo]

(29-12-2015, 03:01 PM)willy Skrev: Hi Gert,Watches are not shares,and your argument does not apply here.You have to understand watch history,to understand the market for watches.In this branch prestige means everything,in the eyes of people who buy these watches.Most people who buy these watches,have no bloody idea what they are buying.
                                 Vacheron Constantin were in past years considered to be the ultimate high end watch,Patek were in second place.At this time VC were considered to be making the best factory produced watches,the rich elite could buy.In fact VC are the watch brand that were No 1 for the longest time in watch history.Their big mistake was that they did not keep the same quality and new thinking in developing new watches.Patek overtook them in terms of quality and development of new watches.
                                One thing both of these brands have in common.Is the fact that they out scourced all their calibers-cases-straps etc etc out of house.They both built their reputations on finish and the development of complication watches.Technically they were no where near JLC ,who built many of the famous calibers these two brands built their reputation on.
                                      Lange are very different,and are changing watch history.This is the first time a top 5 high end brand is really what you can call inhouse.They have made more new calibers in the last 30 years,than PP or VC have made in all of their history! Why is this you might ask?Answer is, they have resources the other high end brands do not have.Once all the watch experts in the world think you are No 1,it does not take long to reach the general public.People in China or India are not stupid.They can read. In a survey i read a couple of years ago,about the USA high end watch market,Lange beat Patek hands down as the No1 most exclusive watch gift for a out going director.
                                       Forget the general public,they do not buy these watches.These watches are made mostly for the wealthy top 10% of our populations.And believe me they allready know all about Lange,and what they stand for.Rarity- prestige- exclusive-and being no1, mean everthing to the type of buyers PP and Lange aspire to.

                                           Patek remind me a bit of Rolls Royce.They had fantastic traditions of handwork in their cars,but tecnically they were years behind Mercedes.They were loosing their market to other manufactures.And if they had not been taken over,and given access to new engines and finance,they would no longer exist.

                              Stock market analyse is very flawed.These people have failed to predict any stock market crashes for about 150 years The reason i think,is because they do not know enough about history or long term politics.
                                   It is nice to read a constructive argument with for and against elements in it for a change,and you have done it well.
                                     If Patek get taken over by someone with financial muscle.Then all my predictions can turn to dust.My guess is that it will not happen untill it is to late.

Willy, du tror på Lange - og jeg er lidt nysgerrig om hvorfor. Altså, hvorfor du går gang efter gang i krig for brandet som om du var personligt involveret ?
Nu er jeg hverken PP eller Lange person - synes at de laver begge kedelige high end klokker, meget designmæssig konservative er de også - specielt Lange.
Jeg er enig med Mads ang. det at uanset hvordan Lange klarer sig i længden, kommer det ikke at tage førstepladsen i den megen langsombevægende og konservativ branche (= velhavende samlere og nørder ) i den nære fremtid. Det tager tid - i den grad at de fleste hidsige debatører herfra er for længst flygtet gennem krematoriets skorsten før Lange evt. krones med laugbærekrans  

Mvh. John

[Stensbjerg]

Kigger man lidt på fortiden for at kunne gætte bedre om fremtiden,
Så er feks. de sports Rolex som ikke var populære da de blev lanceret
Og deraf ikke solgt i et stort antal.

Helt sikkert dem som sælges for pæne summer i dag,
fordi de er svære at få fat på De ure er derfor 100% en god investering.

Jeg tror det er en kombi af det som Mads og Willy generelt siger,
Find de ure som der ikke er mange af men som falder i mange smag,
Og dem med tung tekniske show off.

Personlig tror jeg det generelt er lidt "skæve" sports ure 
Samt dem med rigtig lækkert håndværk lavet i lavt antal,
Som pengene vil hvile sikkert i.

[willy]

(30-12-2015, 12:46 PM)TioMalo Skrev:

(29-12-2015, 03:01 PM)willy Skrev: Hi Gert,Watches are not shares,and your argument does not apply here.You have to understand watch history,to understand the market for watches.In this branch prestige means everything,in the eyes of people who buy these watches.Most people who buy these watches,have no bloody idea what they are buying.
                                 Vacheron Constantin were in past years considered to be the ultimate high end watch,Patek were in second place.At this time VC were considered to be making the best factory produced watches,the rich elite could buy.In fact VC are the watch brand that were No 1 for the longest time in watch history.Their big mistake was that they did not keep the same quality and new thinking in developing new watches.Patek overtook them in terms of quality and development of new watches.
                                One thing both of these brands have in common.Is the fact that they out scourced all their calibers-cases-straps etc etc out of house.They both built their reputations on finish and the development of complication watches.Technically they were no where near JLC ,who built many of the famous calibers these two brands built their reputation on.
                                      Lange are very different,and are changing watch history.This is the first time a top 5 high end brand is really what you can call inhouse.They have made more new calibers in the last 30 years,than PP or VC have made in all of their history! Why is this you might ask?Answer is, they have resources the other high end brands do not have.Once all the watch experts in the world think you are No 1,it does not take long to reach the general public.People in China or India are not stupid.They can read. In a survey i read a couple of years ago,about the USA high end watch market,Lange beat Patek hands down as the No1 most exclusive watch gift for a out going director.
                                       Forget the general public,they do not buy these watches.These watches are made mostly for the wealthy top 10% of our populations.And believe me they allready know all about Lange,and what they stand for.Rarity- prestige- exclusive-and being no1, mean everthing to the type of buyers PP and Lange aspire to.

                                           Patek remind me a bit of Rolls Royce.They had fantastic traditions of handwork in their cars,but tecnically they were years behind Mercedes.They were loosing their market to other manufactures.And if they had not been taken over,and given access to new engines and finance,they would no longer exist.

                              Stock market analyse is very flawed.These people have failed to predict any stock market crashes for about 150 years The reason i think,is because they do not know enough about history or long term politics.
                                   It is nice to read a constructive argument with for and against elements in it for a change,and you have done it well.
                                     If Patek get taken over by someone with financial muscle.Then all my predictions can turn to dust.My guess is that it will not happen untill it is to late.

Willy, du tror på Lange - og jeg er lidt nysgerrig om hvorfor. Altså, hvorfor du går gang efter gang i krig for brandet som om du var personligt involveret ?
Nu er jeg hverken PP eller Lange person - synes at de laver begge kedelige high end klokker, meget designmæssig konservative er de også - specielt Lange.
Jeg er enig med Mads ang. det at uanset hvordan Lange klarer sig i længden, kommer det ikke at tage førstepladsen i den megen langsombevægende og konservativ branche (= velhavende samlere og nørder ) i den nære fremtid. Det tager tid - i den grad at de fleste hidsige debatører herfra er for længst flygtet gennem krematoriets skorsten før Lange evt. krones med laugbærekrans  

Mvh. John

John i believe in Lange because nearly all experts in the international watch world i have read put them at the top.Lange are perfectionists,even more so than Patek.They use old school methods in the finishing of their watches.From the cheapest model to the highest,the finish is the same.They develop and make more new calibers than any brand you can name.How do you do this by selling only 5-6000 watches a year? The answer is that they have the backing of the Richmont group.Developing a new caliber costs a fortune,as you know.Patek cannot possibly compete here.You are way off the mark by calling Lange conservative.The opposite is true,just look at the designs and models you can choose from with Lange.Since 1994 Lange came from no where,and look where they are today! Do you really believe they will stop there?They are doing exactly what Patek did many years ago.Making not so many watches,but making the best.This will eventually eat away at Patek,for every year that goes by.Lange as always been a long term prestige brand for Richmont and Germany.You can read on the net just how much brand value Lange give to Germany.They always intended to knock PP off the top spot from the day they opened the factory.They do not have to buy their own watches at auctions like Patek,to push prices up.But this could change in the future.Imagine if in just 20 years Lange started to copy Patek, and begin to manipulate the used watch market.Rolex also did this,as you know The Germans are a very thorough people,and are experts at long term branding.Just look at Audi if you want an example.A dead car brand with history,until a few years ago.Now look where they are.First they took all the prestige rally championships,and became the best.Then they upped production,and put most other car brands in the shade.This cost billions of dollars,and they could only do it with the backing of the VW concern.Lange are in the same position Audi were a few years ago.Patek as a privatly owned brand with a yearly production of just 50-60000 watches are not Rolex.There is not a snowballs chance in hell,they can compete with Lange in the long run.You can talk about history untill the cows come home.But History is there to be changed.And Lange are doing it.

                                            On a personal level,you ask me why i ring the bell for Lange.I like underdogs,but i do not like complacent snob brands.Patek have been one of the most arrogant brands you could meet for many years.Now they are trying to make up for this deficit,by organizing factory visits,and employing extra staff in the PR.department.They have put watch critics in their pockets,and manipulated their own used watch prices for many years now.I have great respect for what Patek have achieved in the past.But today they are just repeating the same calibers and designs.They bring absolutly nothing new to watch making.I have more respect for Omega in this aspect.Patek are living in the past,but not making watches like they did in the past.And it always makes my blood boil,to read people who just love everything Patek do.Lange make bad watches Patek make bad watches all brands make duff watches now and again.But reading many watch nerds opinions about their favorite brands,is like going to a Justin Bieber concert.All screaming,and no one really gives a shit about the music.
                                                The watch trade is basicly corrupt,and it is all about marketing and selling.That is ok we live in a capilistic world.But it is a pity so many people do not know what is happening to them.I beat the drums for Lange in this case.This could change from one day to the other.Maybe the Chinese or Japanese will try to take the market from Lange and Patek.I never say never.I know a little bit about watches,but am not a expert,and i believe maybe 5% of what i read about them.I used to write a lot about IWC,indeed i think i was one of the first in Denmark to argue and debate, this then virtually unknown brand in Denmark.Today i think they have lost their standards,and i could only recomend a handfull of their watches.This is a brand i loved since i was a boy.Who knows what i will say in a few years about Lange.I just like to tell things as i see them,reputation means nothing to me.I have also been manipulated by Lange,and i know and accept this fact.I just wish a few others could say the same about brands they like

[TioMalo]

Du kommer med nogle lidt løse argumenter og refererer til noget sagt i et eller andet sted på nettet.
Lange er sikkert et fantastisk (?) ur, IMHO designmæssigt enten meget gammeldags / konservativ eller når de prøver noget nyt, mærkeligt / besynderligt med alle de modeller hvor der er placeret et - par små dials i en klassisk urkasse. Men indmædderne er sikker fine. Nu beundrer og bruger jeg ikke ure for at måle amplituden og kigge gangsresultat på digital display. Ej heller som mine musikfreak venner som tilsyneladende nyder musik ved at se SIN-kurve på oscilloskopet.
Jeg er fan af ure jeg kan have på armen 24/7 og som tåler lidt rystelser og er vandtætte, trækker sig selv op viger meget lidt i gang. Og fan af musik som lyder godt - også hvis lydkurven ikke er helt flad.
Audi analog er jeg ikke helt med (på trods af at jeg selv kører én). Audi var et hæderskronet mærke som bare ikke solgte specielt godt i 70´ene og 80´ene. Fut i frikadellerne kom der når både BMW og Mercedes tabte big time i markedsandelene for forskellige grunde. Og ja, som Lange er Audi ligeledes meget usexet og designmæssig kedelig - men teknisk holdbar.
Lange kom først på markedet på 90´ene. Alt for kort tid at - IMHO - sige noget klogt om mærket.

Nå, jeg fik ikke svar for mit spørgsmål om dit personligt engagement i Lange...

Mvh. John

[willy]

(30-12-2015, 02:59 PM)TioMalo Skrev: Du kommer med nogle lidt løse argumenter og refererer til noget sagt i et eller andet sted på nettet.
Lange er sikkert et fantastisk (?) ur, IMHO designmæssigt enten meget gammeldags / konservativ eller når de prøver noget nyt, mærkeligt / besynderligt med alle de modeller hvor der er placeret et - par små dials i en klassisk urkasse. Men indmædderne er sikker fine. Nu beundrer og bruger jeg ikke ure for at måle amplituden og kigge gangsresultat på digital display. Ej heller som mine musikfreak venner som tilsyneladende nyder musik ved at se SIN-kurve på oscilloskopet.
Jeg er fan af ure jeg kan have på armen 24/7 og som tåler lidt rystelser og er vandtætte, trækker sig selv op viger meget lidt i gang. Og fan af musik som lyder godt - også hvis lydkurven ikke er helt flad.
Audi analog er jeg ikke helt med (på trods af at jeg selv kører én). Audi var et hæderskronet mærke som bare ikke solgte specielt godt i 70´ene og 80´ene. Fut i frikadellerne kom der når både BMW og Mercedes tabte big time i markedsandelene for forskellige grunde. Og ja, som Lange er Audi ligeledes meget usexet og designmæssig kedelig - men teknisk holdbar.
Lange kom først på markedet på 90´ene. Alt for kort tid at - IMHO - sige noget klogt om mærket.

Nå, jeg fik ikke svar for mit spørgsmål om dit personligt engagement i Lange...

Mvh. John

Yes you did John,i gave you my reasons for beating the drum for Lange.If you read the history of the resurge of Audi,you can see what it cost VW to win the World Rally Championship and relance the brand.When you say Loose arguments,i will give you the answer you gave Jacob not so long ago.Get googling its all on the net Happy New Year John

[willy]

(30-12-2015, 11:46 AM)guru1313 Skrev: Har vi ikke set denne form for debat før, postulater der er skråsikre og betragtninger der godt kan flyttes på.  

Jeg er ikke meget inde i PP og Lange, men jeg vil, uden at blinke, bruge mine sparepenge ud fra især Gerts men også Mads betragtninger. De handler ikke kun om ure, eller rettere ét bestemt mærke, som ifølge Willy vil være det eneste saliggørende i fremtiden, Citat "But Lange are or will be in the buyers eyes the ultimate" men om økonomi, som er det verdensorden drejer rundt om.

Jeg forestiller mig, at rigtige møg rige og passionerede samlere er ligeglade med gensalgsværdien, de vil bare have DET ur!
Så er der de samlere der, økonomisk ikke har uanede midler. De er nød til at skæve til gensalgsværdien, for at opretholde det økonomiske aspekt i samlingen.
Og så er der dem der bruger ure som investering, de må tage store chancer og håbe på, at de har købt rigtigt ind. Ikke kun i forhold til mærker, men også i forhold til modeller, årgange, små serier, modeller der pludselig udgår, skrifttyper på skiven, fejl på skiven der slipper igennem kontrollen etc.etc..... men hvem kan gætte det?

Allan

---

If you think collectors do not care about resale value,you need to think again.In this price class you do not pay maybe hundreds of thousands of kroner if you cannot sell the bloody thing again Even poor collectors go after watches they can sell or exchange again.I do not think real collectors buy watches just as an investment.If they do its usually long term.There are no ridiculous arguments in what i am saying about Lange or Patek,and nothing is 100%.We are all guessing the future,even you.I base my arguments on what has been written by some of the leading international watch writers.I do not base them on what a few local self appointed watch nerds mean.You say you do not know much about Patek or Lange.Well i would suggest you get reading,then your argument would carry more weight.History is very important in understanding watches.

[guru1313]

Citat Willy: "You say you do not know much about Patek or Lange.Well i would suggest you get reading,then your argument would carry more weight".
Øjeblik... jeg Googler lige, læser alt hvad der er omkring PP & Lange. Med min læsehastighed er jeg nok tilbage om ca. 30min.  

Men jeg argumenterer ikke for og imod noget i denne tråd, det ved jeg nemlig alt for lidt om PP & Lange, til at gøre! Og kloge mig på det og komme med postulater...arrh hvilke mennesker tør det?
Jeg har nogle forestillinger om emnet, specielt det økonomiske aspekt og samlere. Og hverken du eller jeg , Willy, ved om der er samlere der ikke behøver at bekymre sig om gensalgsværdi. Det forestiller jeg mig at der er. 

Allan

[khbk]

Jeg fatter heldigvis ikke mange % af dette, men hvad er disse mennesker, som køber de omtalte ure?
Er de "samlere" eller de blot mennesker, der skal have et ur, men bare befinder sig i et højere økonomisk segment? Fordi man har et antal kostbare ure, er man vel ikke "samler"?
Da disse ure ikke siger mig det mindste, har jeg ingen mening om emnet, men finder dog diskussionen overordentlig interessant.
Med hensyn til analogien til bilverdenen, ved købere af dyrere biler vel ikke mere om teknik end købere af fx Opel og Skoda? Dem med flere penge kan bare vælge på de øverste hylder.
Det virker oven i købet (på min i hvert fald) som om at jo mere velhavende man er, jo mindre fantasi har man. Jf de uendelige rækker af sorte Audier i de "pæne" kvarterer.
/
Kristen
Og så lige lidt off topic: Der er Mercedes-Benz og så er der de andre. Designmæssigt står M-B fantastisk stærkt i dag!

[Stensbjerg]

Går vi bil vejen kan der første blive sat ild i debatten 
Som med alt andet er nogen til datteren andre til moderen. 

Men Kristen hvis du kigger på et af de største markeder for større biler 
Som er den slags vi typisk forbinder Mercedes, BMW og Audi med,
Nemlig det amerikanske.

Så har de alle tre i flere år stået i skyggen af Lexus,
(Kender dog ikke 15 tallene på stående fod)

Det danske markedet betyder intet i en moderne bil producent produktion,
De ca 100.000 ny biler der sælges hvert år herhjemme,
Betyder eller bestemmer intet når der skal laves biler.

Men efter små 20 år i branchen professionelt, 
Ved jeg 100% at de Mercedes der laves i dag ikke er lavet på sammen to much måde
Som tilfældet var før i tiden præcis som med Volvo.

Der er ganske enkelt ikke økonomi til det da den tilgang til tingene i dag er meget svær at tjene penge på,
I dag handler det om at få mest ud af mindst muligt for bedst mulig økonomi,
derfor ser vi også alle de tilfælde hvor der deles Komponenter på tværs af alle mærker,
Feks. Renault/Mercedes, BMW/PSA group

Så hvis du sætter MB så højt over alt andet,
Så har deres PR virket efter hensigten, ihvertfald på dig.