Investment or not

[willy]

(01-01-2016, 03:07 PM)cfnissen Skrev: Haha Willy,

It is always such great fun to see what happens when someone gives you a bit of pushback on your posts and the always very interesting opinions/claims they contain.

When other people write about watches they are always characterized as uninformed, not knowledgeable, minions of PR departments , uninteresting or just plain liars or unethical people without the ability to form their own opinions.

When you defend your own opinions/claims they are always based on many, many years of experience, ownership of every single watch being discussed, informed dialogue with key insiders in the industry,  thousands of sources and not least having a closer relationship to 'the ultimate truth' about watchmaking than any other living person on this planet.

I really find it hard to believe that the difference between the quality of your opinions and those of others is as big as you claim.

I carry no illusion about being able to make you change your behavior in any way - and neither would I want to. This is a forum for all of us, after all. It is just an observation across a growing number of discussions where you have participated.

As for your conspiracy theories about people having ulterior motives....isn't that just another way of discounting the opinions of people who disagree with you? If people have opinions different from yours, they are not necessarily based on anything other than just having a different point of view/perspective.

*** back on topic ***

As for the investment discussion itself, it is my OPINION that PP will rule the auctions and other secondary markets for many years, together with Rolex. There are many reasons for this.

First, there are general trends (my personal observations), such as

- A general increase in the awareness of 'normal people' of mechanical watches - from newspaper articles, magazines, gadget blogs, fashion blogs, etc. It is so easy to start becoming a connoiseur these days.
- Low returns on traditional financial assets creating a need for alternative investment vehicles and an increased appetite for taking on risk to get good returns.
- Increasing awareness of the potential benefits of investing in rare watches in general (chance of increase in value, portability across borders, as a store of cash, hiding money from the tax authorities, etc. - there are many ulterior motives behind this).
- Watches increasingly being seen a an asset class on par with other fine art (paintings, sculptures, etc. - but this obviously only applies to the best/rarest/most complicated of the watches - and mostly in the US and parts of Asia)

Then there are Patek-specific trends, such as
- PP's hard-nosed and unsentimental efforts to build an image of PP products as the ultimate investment - some of it through auction shennanigans but also through their strong focus on being able to service and repair the best of their old products across generations, as demonstrated during my visit to PP last month.
- The relative rarity of key PP complicated references (not the standard Calatravas and other basic fluff that PP produces every year in large numbers) - a fact highlighted by and backed up with numbers and examples by two industry heavy hitters in New York last month, Aurel Bacs of Phillips and Mr. John Reardon, Head of watches at Christie's. Both pretty much experts in their field.
- The personal prestige related to having the means and connections to acquire the rarest of PPs

Lange is not there yet, in my OPINION. They are certainly moving in that direction if you take a look at their product strategy as expressed by their CEO to me in New York some five months ago
- Fewer points-of-sales to better manage the brand and the customer relationship
- Higher average sales prices across the range - they are moving their products upwards in (perceived?) quality - more complications, more limited editions, etc.
- More 'flagship' products such as Zeitwerk repeaters, Datographs, multi-complications, etc.
- Limited production numbers - and no plans to increase them

In reality they are many years behind PP in creating a similar market presence or share of mind, if you like. Yes, they have significant resources (financial, management talent, watchmaking talent, etc) behind them as part of the Richemont group - but they also have a steep mountain to climb.

And Lange is also resorting to fancy marketing tricks, in my view. Look at the latest jubilee models celebrating the 200th birthday of one of the original Lange family members. If you take a look at the communications supporting those models, you will quickly see that they are not very clear on the fact that they are celebrating the 200th birthday of a person, not the company itself (that only opened for business in 1994). See here for one example

http://www.alange-soehne.com/en/news-and...ders-2015/

I am certainly not one to follow auction results slavishly - but in a room full of very high-end, very active and discerning collectors last month it was pretty clear that Lange carries a lot of love and respect for their finishing and general German qualities but most of them were talking PP (and Rolex...) references when they really got engaged in discussions on watches as investments. Lange and the independents were mostly seen as interesting from a horological perspective.

This time make no mistake on my personal motives or ulterior motives here, please. I actually have a Lange that I love due to its very German qualities. I do not own a PP - and I am not sure that I ever will.

Claus


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Claus har været ur-interesseret i efterhånden mange år - det hele startede med at han fik lov til at låne sin fars Jaeger-LeCoultre ur som dreng - og siden er det gået ned ad bakke. Kan følges på Instagram under navnet @cfnissen.

I said the thread was closed for me.So why the personal attack you know i cannot answer?