Investment or not

[willy]

(30-12-2015, 12:46 PM)TioMalo Skrev:

(29-12-2015, 03:01 PM)willy Skrev: Hi Gert,Watches are not shares,and your argument does not apply here.You have to understand watch history,to understand the market for watches.In this branch prestige means everything,in the eyes of people who buy these watches.Most people who buy these watches,have no bloody idea what they are buying.
                                 Vacheron Constantin were in past years considered to be the ultimate high end watch,Patek were in second place.At this time VC were considered to be making the best factory produced watches,the rich elite could buy.In fact VC are the watch brand that were No 1 for the longest time in watch history.Their big mistake was that they did not keep the same quality and new thinking in developing new watches.Patek overtook them in terms of quality and development of new watches.
                                One thing both of these brands have in common.Is the fact that they out scourced all their calibers-cases-straps etc etc out of house.They both built their reputations on finish and the development of complication watches.Technically they were no where near JLC ,who built many of the famous calibers these two brands built their reputation on.
                                      Lange are very different,and are changing watch history.This is the first time a top 5 high end brand is really what you can call inhouse.They have made more new calibers in the last 30 years,than PP or VC have made in all of their history! Why is this you might ask?Answer is, they have resources the other high end brands do not have.Once all the watch experts in the world think you are No 1,it does not take long to reach the general public.People in China or India are not stupid.They can read. In a survey i read a couple of years ago,about the USA high end watch market,Lange beat Patek hands down as the No1 most exclusive watch gift for a out going director.
                                       Forget the general public,they do not buy these watches.These watches are made mostly for the wealthy top 10% of our populations.And believe me they allready know all about Lange,and what they stand for.Rarity- prestige- exclusive-and being no1, mean everthing to the type of buyers PP and Lange aspire to.

                                           Patek remind me a bit of Rolls Royce.They had fantastic traditions of handwork in their cars,but tecnically they were years behind Mercedes.They were loosing their market to other manufactures.And if they had not been taken over,and given access to new engines and finance,they would no longer exist.

                              Stock market analyse is very flawed.These people have failed to predict any stock market crashes for about 150 years The reason i think,is because they do not know enough about history or long term politics.
                                   It is nice to read a constructive argument with for and against elements in it for a change,and you have done it well.
                                     If Patek get taken over by someone with financial muscle.Then all my predictions can turn to dust.My guess is that it will not happen untill it is to late.

Willy, du tror på Lange - og jeg er lidt nysgerrig om hvorfor. Altså, hvorfor du går gang efter gang i krig for brandet som om du var personligt involveret ?
Nu er jeg hverken PP eller Lange person - synes at de laver begge kedelige high end klokker, meget designmæssig konservative er de også - specielt Lange.
Jeg er enig med Mads ang. det at uanset hvordan Lange klarer sig i længden, kommer det ikke at tage førstepladsen i den megen langsombevægende og konservativ branche (= velhavende samlere og nørder ) i den nære fremtid. Det tager tid - i den grad at de fleste hidsige debatører herfra er for længst flygtet gennem krematoriets skorsten før Lange evt. krones med laugbærekrans  

Mvh. John

John i believe in Lange because nearly all experts in the international watch world i have read put them at the top.Lange are perfectionists,even more so than Patek.They use old school methods in the finishing of their watches.From the cheapest model to the highest,the finish is the same.They develop and make more new calibers than any brand you can name.How do you do this by selling only 5-6000 watches a year? The answer is that they have the backing of the Richmont group.Developing a new caliber costs a fortune,as you know.Patek cannot possibly compete here.You are way off the mark by calling Lange conservative.The opposite is true,just look at the designs and models you can choose from with Lange.Since 1994 Lange came from no where,and look where they are today! Do you really believe they will stop there?They are doing exactly what Patek did many years ago.Making not so many watches,but making the best.This will eventually eat away at Patek,for every year that goes by.Lange as always been a long term prestige brand for Richmont and Germany.You can read on the net just how much brand value Lange give to Germany.They always intended to knock PP off the top spot from the day they opened the factory.They do not have to buy their own watches at auctions like Patek,to push prices up.But this could change in the future.Imagine if in just 20 years Lange started to copy Patek, and begin to manipulate the used watch market.Rolex also did this,as you know The Germans are a very thorough people,and are experts at long term branding.Just look at Audi if you want an example.A dead car brand with history,until a few years ago.Now look where they are.First they took all the prestige rally championships,and became the best.Then they upped production,and put most other car brands in the shade.This cost billions of dollars,and they could only do it with the backing of the VW concern.Lange are in the same position Audi were a few years ago.Patek as a privatly owned brand with a yearly production of just 50-60000 watches are not Rolex.There is not a snowballs chance in hell,they can compete with Lange in the long run.You can talk about history untill the cows come home.But History is there to be changed.And Lange are doing it.

                                            On a personal level,you ask me why i ring the bell for Lange.I like underdogs,but i do not like complacent snob brands.Patek have been one of the most arrogant brands you could meet for many years.Now they are trying to make up for this deficit,by organizing factory visits,and employing extra staff in the PR.department.They have put watch critics in their pockets,and manipulated their own used watch prices for many years now.I have great respect for what Patek have achieved in the past.But today they are just repeating the same calibers and designs.They bring absolutly nothing new to watch making.I have more respect for Omega in this aspect.Patek are living in the past,but not making watches like they did in the past.And it always makes my blood boil,to read people who just love everything Patek do.Lange make bad watches Patek make bad watches all brands make duff watches now and again.But reading many watch nerds opinions about their favorite brands,is like going to a Justin Bieber concert.All screaming,and no one really gives a shit about the music.
                                                The watch trade is basicly corrupt,and it is all about marketing and selling.That is ok we live in a capilistic world.But it is a pity so many people do not know what is happening to them.I beat the drums for Lange in this case.This could change from one day to the other.Maybe the Chinese or Japanese will try to take the market from Lange and Patek.I never say never.I know a little bit about watches,but am not a expert,and i believe maybe 5% of what i read about them.I used to write a lot about IWC,indeed i think i was one of the first in Denmark to argue and debate, this then virtually unknown brand in Denmark.Today i think they have lost their standards,and i could only recomend a handfull of their watches.This is a brand i loved since i was a boy.Who knows what i will say in a few years about Lange.I just like to tell things as i see them,reputation means nothing to me.I have also been manipulated by Lange,and i know and accept this fact.I just wish a few others could say the same about brands they like