Investment or not

[willy]

(26-12-2015, 08:23 PM)TimeToWatch.dk Skrev: Den betragtning er jeg ikke enig i og heller ikke det billede jeg ser, hvis man kigger på alverdens større auktionshuses hammerslagspriser.

Logger man ind på feks. antiquorum kan man søge på Patek hammerslagspriser, og her er det ganske tydeligt at langt de fleste ure sælges og også i et prisleje i den gode ende af vurderingen.

Har du links til de artikler på feks Hodinkee der skriver det generelle prisniveau på PP er faldende?

Jeg TROR såmænd ikke at vi fremover vil se disse stigninger fortsætte i samme omfang som vi har de sidste 10 år, men jeg TROR bare ikke at L&S vil rykke op og overtage 1. pladsen fra PP de næste mange år. Dertil er L&S's produktionsperiode/alder (af high-end) og manglende historie ret og slet for mangelfuld til. PP har så stort et vintage bagkatalog af komplicerede og sjældne ure, at de helt tunge samlere vil finde disse langt mere attraktive end L&S's nye og knap så sjældne ure. Dette er ikke noget faktum men blot mine spådomme.  

/Mads

Like you say,we can only guess.Hodinkee did not say the general price was falling for PP,just on the latest auction.Like i said Mads,i have no dispute with the fact that at this time.PP will because of their older models,still reach the highest auction prices.You cannot change history over night.But if you read what most international experts mean about Lange,they think PP have fallen behind Lange in terms of finish and inventions.Lange make the best high end factory produced watches you can buy today.And i cannot rate your opinion from little Denmark higher than people like Phillipe Dufour and others.
                                      I believe PP will continue to break world records with some of their watches.Especially when they buy them,and manipulate the market.VC used to be the no 1 prestige brand in the world and PP were no 2 for years.So you see history does change.And the begining of the end for VC,started when PP started to build better watches.Its really that simple.People who have money want the best,and that is no longer PP.The only field they beat Lange in this moment of time,is in auction prices.And as you know auction prices dictate the used price of watches.
                                        Anyone who cannot see the achievment of a brand like Lange,who only really started in 1994,must have their head buried in the sand.In this relative short time,they have left the other high end brands in the shade.Who would have even dreamed that any brand could compete or beat Patek?I know you did not Mads But i did,because i read a article about Lange years ago.They stated that they intended to make the best high end factory produced watches you could buy.And with their German background,and the fact that they were a prestige brand not just for Richmont,but for Germany.And having almost unlimited funds,i thought how can anyone compete with this.PP have no where near the resources of Lange,it is a uneven contest.It takes time to change the way that consumers think,especially in the luxury segment.

                                            So this is my prediction for the future.Patek will continue to be the no1 auction price brand for many years to come,because of their history and their back catalogue of historic watches.Lange will take the position as the no 1 high end brand making factory produced watches.Over the next 30-40 years older Lange watches will get closer and closer to Patek auction prices,and eventually beat them.The biggest problem i can see for PP,is the effect of not being considered the best.Only a fool would underestimate the effect this can have.Just ask Vacheron But if Patek are sold to a big watch group,this picture could change.In the end its all down to resources,and this is why Lange can keep spitting out new calibers and new inventions.Patek cannot do this to the same degree.I predict a fall in prices for used Patek watches over the next few years,because there are just to many of them for sale.And everyone with a bit of common sense knows this effects prices.Rich people tend to want the best,and this alone will dictate a winner of this contest.