Investment or not

[willy]

I was looking at Chrono 24 today,and decided to take a look at the numbers of used watches for sale.I must admit i got a bit of a shock looking at the number of Pateks for sale.There were 1308 complication Pateks for sale and a total of 3469 pateks including the complications.
                                  Now most watch nerds know that Brand-Rarity-Condition is what makes a watch collectable.What gave Patek their high auction prices was their rarity and the fact that they were the best you could get, in the segment for factory produced watches.This is in my opinion no longer true.And i think that people who buy a Patek today as a long term Investment are making a big mistake.With the production numbers they have today,there is absolutly no way they can keep their position in the used watch market.50-60000 watches a year is a lot.Compair this to Lange who make only 5000,and there are only 526 used Lange watches for sale on Chrono 24 today,and this includes complications.Lange prices have been steadly rising on all the big watch auctions,and Pateks are falling.But to be fair Patek rare watches are still the darlings of watch auctions,and still achieve the highest prices.But this picture will not be the same in 20-30 years.

                                   There is no doubt in my mind that Lange make the finest factory produced watches in the world today.And i think they will continue to keep their production low compaired to Patek.It is really a very clever strategy,that Lange and Richmont worked out in 1994 when the first Lange watches were released.Modern Lange watches are more rare and harder to get than most Patek watches.And Lange according to any surveys i have read are deemed to be much more exclusive than any comparable model Patek.
                                                                  I would like to add,that this is written not just to do a Hachet job on Patek.It is written for all the people who believe everything they read  I have owned a couple of Pateks and i liked them.But they do not have the magic for me that they once had.I always dreamed of owning one of their watches,because at that time they were in my eyes the best.They still make some fantastic complications and beautifull watches.But i think that by producing so many watches,they are going into a steady decline.Forget all the self appointed watch experts and brand followers who act like sheep getting sheared.Just remember one word that means everthing to people who collect watches.Rarity!

             http://www.hodinkee.com/articles/the-a-l...manufactor  PS. Please read it all