Investment or not

[willy]

I was looking at Chrono 24 today,and decided to take a look at the numbers of used watches for sale.I must admit i got a bit of a shock looking at the number of Pateks for sale.There were 1308 complication Pateks for sale and a total of 3469 pateks including the complications.
                                  Now most watch nerds know that Brand-Rarity-Condition is what makes a watch collectable.What gave Patek their high auction prices was their rarity and the fact that they were the best you could get, in the segment for factory produced watches.This is in my opinion no longer true.And i think that people who buy a Patek today as a long term Investment are making a big mistake.With the production numbers they have today,there is absolutly no way they can keep their position in the used watch market.50-60000 watches a year is a lot.Compair this to Lange who make only 5000,and there are only 526 used Lange watches for sale on Chrono 24 today,and this includes complications.Lange prices have been steadly rising on all the big watch auctions,and Pateks are falling.But to be fair Patek rare watches are still the darlings of watch auctions,and still achieve the highest prices.But this picture will not be the same in 20-30 years.

                                   There is no doubt in my mind that Lange make the finest factory produced watches in the world today.And i think they will continue to keep their production low compaired to Patek.It is really a very clever strategy,that Lange and Richmont worked out in 1994 when the first Lange watches were released.Modern Lange watches are more rare and harder to get than most Patek watches.And Lange according to any surveys i have read are deemed to be much more exclusive than any comparable model Patek.
                                                                  I would like to add,that this is written not just to do a Hachet job on Patek.It is written for all the people who believe everything they read  I have owned a couple of Pateks and i liked them.But they do not have the magic for me that they once had.I always dreamed of owning one of their watches,because at that time they were in my eyes the best.They still make some fantastic complications and beautifull watches.But i think that by producing so many watches,they are going into a steady decline.Forget all the self appointed watch experts and brand followers who act like sheep getting sheared.Just remember one word that means everthing to people who collect watches.Rarity!

             http://www.hodinkee.com/articles/the-a-l...manufactor  PS. Please read it all

[Amehlbye]

Jeg har lært at fornuft og urpriser hænger ikke sammen :) om du får ret eller el, det vil tiden vise. Men jeg vil give det ret i, at logisk, burde udbuddet blive for stort og prisen ned.


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[mojohe67]

Der er 1.683 patek ure fra 1994 og frem, mens der er 363 Lange ure fra samme periode til salg på Chrono24. Det må vel betyde at folk der i nyere tid har købt et Patek holder mere fast i det end folk der køber et Lange ( set i forhold til produktionstallene ).

[TioMalo]

(15-12-2015, 12:17 AM)mojohe67 Skrev: Der er 1.683 patek ure fra 1994 og frem, mens der er 363 Lange ure fra samme periode til salg på Chrono24. Det må vel betyde at folk der i nyere tid har købt et Patek holder mere fast i det end folk der køber et Lange ( set i forhold til produktionstallene ).

Jeg når ikke lige at hente Pateks og Langes produktionstalerne frem, men noget som halter her er at Lange lavede den store internationale charmeoffensiv og entré så sent som i årtusindeskiftet hvorimod Patek har været der siden Harald Blåtand og Jesu fødsel, sådant ca. Derfor er talerne ikke sammenlignelige. Kan huske den store reception hos OM når de blev AD. I 1999 ? 2000 ?

However, Pateks ejere er ikke kun det, deres PR-afdeling har planlagt (= distingverede velhavere som kun passer på deres ur så at den næste generation kan overtage det )

Mvh. John

[jk]

Initiativet til det nuværende Lange & Söhne kom fra den legendariske IWC direktør Günter Blümlein. Med finansiel støtte fra Mannesmann AG, som dengang (via VDO) ejede IWC, Vacheron Constantin og det meste af Jaeger le Coultre, fik Blümlein sammen med Walter Lange, som ejede firmanavnet, etableret urfabrikken. Den fremviste sine første ure d. 24. Oktober 1994. Senere i 2001 blev firmaet solgt til Richmont koncernen

[mojohe67]

(15-12-2015, 07:27 AM)TioMalo Skrev: However, Pateks ejere er ikke kun det, deres PR-afdeling har planlagt (= distingverede velhavere som kun passer på deres ur så at den næste generation kan overtage det   )

Mvh. John

Med mindre du har flere Patek ure end børn

[willy]

(15-12-2015, 12:17 AM)mojohe67 Skrev: Der er 1.683 patek ure fra 1994 og frem, mens der er 363 Lange ure fra samme periode til salg på Chrono24. Det må vel betyde at folk der i nyere tid har købt et Patek holder mere fast i det end folk der køber et Lange ( set i forhold til produktionstallene ).

I do not think you are right.The amount of Patek complication watches for sale has never been higher in all of their history.But we could quibble about this until the cows come home.People who like Patek have a tendence to ignore the facts that are staring them in the face.And it is a fact that making to many watches is not a good thing for future investment.Patek are just not so exclusive as they used to be.And this will hurt them in the future.They have a great history and have made many more watches than Lange,and i agree to some extent with Tio,it is hard to compare sales numbers.But please do not try to tell me that a brand who make 50-60000 watches a year will have a higher rarity value,than a brand who only make 5000.And bear in mind that the 5000 are  better finished.I have heard that Patek are giving big discounts on many of their models.Rolex or Lange have no need to do this.Patek talk about waiting lists for their watches,and this can be true for limited editions.But most of it is just sales bullshit.The sales bubble for Patek has burst,just look at the auction prices of today.And it is worth remembering that it is the older Patek complication watches that break auction records,not the new ones.My opinion,and it is just my opinion,is that Lange watches will by far out strip Patek in the future used watch market.So if i was buying a watch to give to the next generation because i never really owned it,i would not be buying a Patek.

[Stensbjerg]

Skulle jeg en dag bruge den slags penge på et ur,
Så blev det aldrig et Patek hverken som investering eller til almindelig brug.

Men det var et godt slogan de kom op med.

[TimeToWatch.dk]

For at vurdere et brands eftertragtethed blandt samlere skal der gang i LANGT flere betragtninger end bare antallet til salg. Ud fra den betragtning, at der er flere til salg af et brand frem for et andet fortæller INTET om eftertragtetheden. I så fald er Rolex jo total uattraktivt, en lejlighed i Kbh den mindst attraktive bolig i DK og en VW den mindst attraktive bil? Uden også at betragte en parameter som salgshastighed er dette tal INTET værd.

PP er klart det high-end ur der er mest salg i og deres historie taget i betragtning er det klart der er LANGT flere PP ure på brugtmarkedet end L&S da der jo er produceret 100 gange flere ure gennem tiden. Men der er mange flere faktorer i spil.

For mig er det der tæller efterspørgslen og salgshastigheden på brugtmarkedet, og her når L&S ikke PP til sokkeholderne. Lige som PP ikke når Rolex til sokkeholderne i lille DK. Jeg oplever at samlere vælger at fokusere på de mærker som for dem er "sikre" investeringer, og her er PP bare suverænt nr. 1 når vi talere high-end. Ergo vælger high-end samlere PP fordi de netop ved at de kan samle på mærket fordi det er en sikker investering de let kan afhænde, hvis de vil have andre ure. Og det udnytter samlerne sig af med PP frem for andre tunge mærker som ofte er usælgelige. Så et stort antal ure på salgsmarkedet er for mig en indikation af at der er "gang i mærket" og IKKE at det er uattraktivt.

Tjekker man mine ure til salg ud vil man se mange sports Rolex i stål. For den uvidende/ukyndige ville konklusionen være: De sports Rolex i stål er der ingen der vil eje da der er mange til salg. For prof. dealeren vil svaret være: Der er bedst salg og efterspørgsel i stål sports Rolex, så det er dem jeg fokuserer på og handler med.

/Mads

[willy]

Looking at the picture outside of Denmark.You are disagreing with what most people believe and know.PP are not the force they used to be.Prices are going down for PP and up for Lange at international auctions.Of course PP are still no1 at this time.But this will not continue.You cannot really believe Mads,that PP with such a large production can beat future Lange prices.Rarity is the word here.PP were a relative rare brand in the past,and auction prices broke all world records.These old PP watches will always break records because of there rarity.But the newer PP watches are made in much greater numbers,and they will never break any records.
                           PP have been greedy and over produced.They will pay the price in the long run.Lange are the prestige brand of the Richmont group,they have unlimited resources and no pressure to make money.They have made more and more sophisticated calibers than Patek in recent years.Patek are falling behind them every year.It is a very uneven contest between PP and Lange.And there will only be one winner of the title of making the worlds best factory produced watch.Lange have already beaten PP in nearly every field you can think of.And this is not just my opinion.The last bastion for PP is their high used prices.And like it or not,Lange are catching up to PP everyday.So i could ask if you really believe that PP is a better long term Investment? I do not think so.